Blue Dot Fever

 

Some commentary on the new catch phrase taking hold in discussions on concerts and ticketing. Keep in mind most of what the average person thinks they know about concert ticketing is total fantasy. But a with lot of first hand experience I do not consider myself the one spewing total drivel but also I am far outnumbered and have found it's primarily an emotional discussion. 

Blue dot fever is the new term but those of us following concerts have often referred to the sea of blue dots when gauging demand. I kinda like it because I caught blue dot fever nearly 5 years ago when I not only stopped buying tickets for resale but stopped buying advance tickets altogether.

More people are buying more tickets at higher prices than ever, it's just that 95% of the artists who ever existed are on tour right now. There are going to be winners and losers. It's always been this way, it's just we are hitting an economic slump and everyone can see the results right in front of their face so "scheduling conflicts" and "taking time off for my family" doesn't get accepted "at face value" the way it used to.

I remember 1991 being a particularly rough year for touring. Too many washed up acts thinking they were still superstars, too many events in a recession and out the door ticket prices somehow jumped from around $20 to 25-30 in the space of a year as new amphitheatres were opening nationwide and had to entice acts to play there with higher guarantees. I also remember the fake Supremes reunion tour being the big flop of 1999. This is a story that played out over and over again through time, we are just seeing it happen a lot more often because there are so many more tours trying to squeeze top dollar right out the gate.

Lady Gaga demand and pricing was off the charts and now Olivia Rodrigo's 4 shows at Intuit Dome has turned into 9. So the top tier is doing just fine. 

What you are seeing now is what I was seeing in resale 5 years ago. A hollowing out of the middle class in events just like with the rest of consumer goods and life necessities. There were so many niche opportunities to arbitrage on pricing on smaller and lower profile events but those dried up post lockdown with less consumer interest and much higher initial prices that could be discounted later and platinum pricing on the best seats. 

The mid tier tours are the ones that are going to struggle the most. Tours that would play a mix of sheds, arenas and large auditoriums playing to 5-10k a night but still requiring a fleet of trucks and buses. The promoter and venue often throw out a lot of comps to maximize concessions and other incidentals in an attempt to save the show. With an economic downtown and much stronger competition they would sell even less with increasing transportation costs squeezing out the profit potential. The biggest tours can also scale to the right amount of shows in the right places and maybe go ahead and play Des Moines or Indianapolis instead of the 5th night in Chicago. 

The only one I feel even slightly affected over was Meghan Trainor, who I never heard a song by, only because it also heralded the return of my beloved Icona Pop opening. Of course I didn't buy a ticket and was waiting for discounts. Maybe they do some headline dates but I don't really think anyone remembers or cares so if they tried it might be a similar situation on a smaller scale. 

Blue dot fever is not a resale disease. I have seen people in various comments sections mention that. A blue dot is a ticket that hasn't even been sold once. If resellers were speculating en masse on Pussycat Dolls tickets we might not be having this discussion. Maybe they can take their refunds and start buying in for Sturgill Simpson or Kid Cudi. Resale has always served as insurance for promoters which is precisely why it's been allowed for so long. Though that's just another aspect of the industry where Ticketmaster / LiveNation is leaning hard on the reset lever.